Looking at the results from Visa, which were out after the closing bell yesterday… Americans are getting their priorities straight in the midst of an economic meltdown not seen in the lifetime of many people alive. It’s something you can sense. I think that men are holding doors open for women, and more people are saying “you’re welcome” (in New York that is a miracle). Now, our spending patterns reflect what’s important. Each business segment was lower for Visa in the first quarter in large part to the strong dollar, but some were down less than others. Check out the results and see where we place importance these days:
— Grooming -16% y/y change
— Health & Wellbeing -12%
— Beauty -9%
— Pet Care -4%
— Baby Care -2%

It looks like in most households in America; the babies and puppies come first while dad has to go days without his hair gel.

Now if you could just [some how] label the PicoP projector as a “Baby Care”…

Anant Goel

Anant Goel

Economists and investors cheered the Q1 2009 earnings results from Apple Inc. (AAPL), saying it was a sign that the American consumer is alive and well. The company sold a mind boggling 2.0 million Mac PCs, 11.0 million iPods, and close to 4.0 million iPhones in a three-month time span. Wow, that doesn’t sound like a recession, and it’s a long way from the Grapes of Wrath [a novel published in 1939 and written by John Steinbeck]. But is that really good news or is there something unnerving about all that spending in this harsh recession that we should be concerned about?

Could it be that people spent money in a haphazard manner? Or they spent money [just to keep-up with the Jones’] when they really should have been saving? Either way, I expect the PicoP Projector to follow the same buying pattern as the iPods and iPhones. Here’s a story to explain why…

In the 1970s, Harlem was one of the poorest neighborhoods in the nation, but it was a money making machine for people selling expensive clothes, sneakers, and cars. Before it opened, there was much concern that a McDonald’s in the hood would be an abject failure.

As it turns out, the first McDonald’s in Harlem became the number one selling restaurant for the chain in the entire world for years. Back then, there were street vendors who lived in the community and the money they made circulated among the people that earned it. However, for the most part it was like there was a giant vacuum cleaning hose sucking up all disposable, and not-so-disposable, money out of the hood.

Nothing was more peculiar than the need to own “Air Jordan” sneakers. Mothers that scrubbed floors for minimum wage had to drop $200.00 to make sure their children fit in and were part of the hip crowd. Households that sustained themselves on welfare checks also felt the same pressure. Demand for these overpriced shoes never waned even after waves of violence, even murder, was being committed to own them. It was the ultimate status symbol, one that made you cool and one that also made you a potential candidate for the morgue. It was American consumerism at its best. It brought out what John Maynard Keynes called “animal spirits.” The desire to own these ultra expensive sneakers also brought out what sociologists might also brand “animal spirits”, too.

After fueling the growth of the world for decades, it is clear that the American consumer is now struggling. One lesson we’ve all learned over the years is that prosperity can be fleeting. In fact, in a blink of an eye it seems like all of our wealth vanished and somehow landed in China. It’s such a fascinating reversal of fortunes, but it underscores the notion of fiscal prudence. Those “Air Jordan” sneakers that were all the rage in Harlem were made by peasants in China whose annual income was so small they couldn’t afford to live [in Harlem] for one week. China isn’t the financial juggernaut it is because there are 1.3 billion people there; the cheap labor source of the world belies the notion of becoming wealthy. Their secret was saving. Saving money for years, living on the bare minimum, fixated on the future.

With that in mind, iPods and iPhones are today’s “Air Jordan” sneakers, hip and stylish, but not a necessity. I’m not sure how much we should be cheering their rocketing sales in this environment.

Stuff We (don’t) Need but Must Have:

Ironically, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey on things that the public believes are necessities. The results are somewhat shocking. There were huge percentage decreases for clothes dryers, home air conditioning (maybe it will be higher in July than April), television sets, and microwaves. In fact, there were only a few items listed that more people believe are necessities now versus 2006. High speed internet access increased 2%, but only 31% said it was a necessity. Flat screen televisions increased the most, up 3%. Then, there were those iPods, again, increasing 1% to 4%. Like many surveys, much could be made of the results. On one hand, it could suggest less materialism.

But this list isn’t about chasing the Jones’; rather it’s about basic stuff that is within reach of most Americans… like iPods and iPhones. There is no doubt that income, or lack thereof, played a major role as respondents are certainly feeling the pinch. A whopping 57% said that they’ve bought less expensive brands or shopped more at discount stores (this is evident in the moves of stocks such as Family Dollar Store, 99 Cents Only Stores, and CitiTrends. Perhaps a silver lining is the 28% that said they’ve cut back on alcohol and cigarettes.

There are so many other things people are doing to adjust to their current circumstances. The sharp decline in what people think they need, however, is remarkable. Maybe there is something else afoot in this story.

Still, there is another way to look at the results. In some ways I believe that people may be taking many things for granted. I kind of lean that way, and it’s not just that we think an air conditioner is less important but some people think we don’t need more ships and jet fighters to protect us. Heck, this weekend we fired up the air conditioners in our house. If asked a week earlier I may have been inclined to say air conditioning wasn’t a necessity, but after a two hour bike ride in the blazing sun I felt like a walking volcano and at that moment the ice cube maker and AC were right up there with Guttenberg’s printing press as the greatest inventions ever.

One of the side effects of a horrific economic slide is a sense of defeat as well. However, we can’t be so down in the dumps as to become vulnerable to so many things, including the shifting away from the things that made the nation great in the first place.

More iPods, iPhones… PicoP projectors anyone?

Anant Goel